Working Papers
Labor Market Returns to Community College: Evidence from Admissions Lotteries (under review)
Abstract: Community colleges enroll a third of all postsecondary students and have great promise addressing recent increases in the demand for skilled workers. In this paper I estimate the labor market returns to a particularly large and important degree, the Associate's Degree in Nursing (ADN). I use student-level academic and earnings records across two decades for all community college students in California. I capitalize on random variation from admissions lotteries to produce causal estimates of the effect of the ADN on earnings and employment. Enrolling in the program increases earnings by 55% and the probability of working in the healthcare industry by 23 percentage points. I also use an individual fixed effects approach and show that there is substantial heterogeneity in earnings returns across nursing programs. The returns are higher in areas with more occupational opportunities for nurses, but there is little difference across measures of college quality. In light of concerns about nursing shortages, I estimate that the economic value of expanding an ADN program by one seat far outweighs the costs.
Locate Your Nearest Exit: Mass Layoffs and Local Labor Market Response, with Andrew Foote and Ann Stevens
NBER Working Paper 21618, October 2015. (Revisions Requested at ILR Review)
Abstract: Large shocks to local labor markets cause lasting changes to communities and their residents. In this paper, we decompose labor force changes into four main components through which individuals exit the local labor force following large labor demand shocks: in-migration, out-migration, retirement, and enrollment in disability insurance. First, we document the magnitude of the response through these channels after a mass layoff event showing that, primarily through migration, they account for roughly two-thirds of labor force reductions. Additionally, we explore the residual difference between these channels and the total labor force change, which is due to labor force non-participation by individuals. We find that this residual is larger in the period following the Great Recession, which highlights the growing importance of non-participation as a response to labor demand shocks. Finally, we find evidence that mass layoff events cause individuals to undertake long-distance migration rather than migration to adjacent counties.
Media: Wall Street Journal; Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Briefs: VoxEU Brief; Census CES Discussion Paper 15-25
Career Technical Education and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from California Community Colleges, with Michal Kurlaender and Ann Stevens
NBER Working Paper 21137, April 2015. (Revisions Requested at Journal of Human Resources)
Abstract: This paper estimates the earnings returns to vocational, or career technical, education programs in the nation’s largest community college system. While career technical education (CTE) programs have often been mentioned as an attractive alternative to four-year colleges for some students, very little systematic evidence exists on the returns to specific vocational certificates and degrees. Using administrative data covering the entire California Community College system and linked administrative earnings records, this study estimates returns to CTE education. We use rich pre-enrollment earnings data and estimation approaches including individual fixed effects and individual trends, and find average returns to CTE certificate and degrees that range from 12 to 23 percent. The largest returns are for programs in the healthcare sector; among non-health related CTE programs estimated returns range from five to ten percent.
Media: CEA Report on Student Debt; Chicago Policy Review; US News and World Report; Five Thirty Eight; Diverse Issues in Higher Education
Briefs: UC Davis Center for Poverty Research
The Effect of Lower Transaction Costs on SSDI Application Rates and Participation, with Stephanie Rennane and Andrew Foote (under review)
We analyze how Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) application behavior was affected by iClaim, a 2009 innovation that streamlined the online application process and lowered costs to apply and appeal. We compare application rates before and after 2009 between counties with differential changes in application costs due to high speed internet access. While higher exposure to the online application led to a small increase in applications and more appeals, it decreased award rates. These results suggest that in counties with higher internet access, iClaim may have increased the share of marginal SSDI applicants or affect the quality of initial applications.
The Effect of Local Labor Market Downturns on Postsecondary Enrollment and Program Choice, with Andrew Foote
Though there is evidence that postsecondary enrollment is countercyclical with respect to national economic trends, much less is known at the local level. This paper examines the response of community college enrollment to local labor demand shocks. We rely on detailed data about institution-level enrollment and credential completion for most two-year colleges across the country over the past two decades. While previous work has focused on local unemployment rates to measure local economic conditions, we leverage counts of mass layoffs within a local labor market, which represent discrete and acute labor demand shocks. We find that for every 100 workers involved in a mass layoff, first-time fall enrollment in nearby community colleges increases by about 3 students in the following year. We also find that credential completion responds heterogeneously by field of study. In particular, we show that the largest responses to mass layoff events are in two-year degrees and certificates in fields with higher expected labor market returns.
Long-term Effects of Head Start: New Evidence from the PSID, with Doug Miller and Na'ama Shenhav (available on request)
Abstract: The best available evidence of the long term impact of Head Start suggests that the program has a positive impact on participants’ economic and health outcomes. However, many of these studies are limited by small sample size and are only able to examine outcomes during early adulthood. This study takes advantage of one of the largest longitudinal samples of Head Start participants, and the detailed information collected in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, to identify the effects of Head Start on an index of economic and health outcomes up to age 40. Using a family fixed effects approach, we find that Head Start increases the likelihood of completing some college. However we find little evidence for a strong effect on overall economic or physical well-being. In our discussion, we identify and discuss new methodological limitations of the family fixed effects approach with a binary independent variable. Our findings imply that our results reflect a local average treatment effect among “switcher” families - that may not be generalizable to the population - and therefore that alternative approaches should be taken to gain additional evidence about the long term impact of Head Start.
In Progress
Research Experience
Before beginning my PhD I worked at the Urban Institute's Metropolitan Housing and Communities Policy Center. You can see my research page here.
Labor Market Returns to Community College: Evidence from Admissions Lotteries (under review)
Abstract: Community colleges enroll a third of all postsecondary students and have great promise addressing recent increases in the demand for skilled workers. In this paper I estimate the labor market returns to a particularly large and important degree, the Associate's Degree in Nursing (ADN). I use student-level academic and earnings records across two decades for all community college students in California. I capitalize on random variation from admissions lotteries to produce causal estimates of the effect of the ADN on earnings and employment. Enrolling in the program increases earnings by 55% and the probability of working in the healthcare industry by 23 percentage points. I also use an individual fixed effects approach and show that there is substantial heterogeneity in earnings returns across nursing programs. The returns are higher in areas with more occupational opportunities for nurses, but there is little difference across measures of college quality. In light of concerns about nursing shortages, I estimate that the economic value of expanding an ADN program by one seat far outweighs the costs.
Locate Your Nearest Exit: Mass Layoffs and Local Labor Market Response, with Andrew Foote and Ann Stevens
NBER Working Paper 21618, October 2015. (Revisions Requested at ILR Review)
Abstract: Large shocks to local labor markets cause lasting changes to communities and their residents. In this paper, we decompose labor force changes into four main components through which individuals exit the local labor force following large labor demand shocks: in-migration, out-migration, retirement, and enrollment in disability insurance. First, we document the magnitude of the response through these channels after a mass layoff event showing that, primarily through migration, they account for roughly two-thirds of labor force reductions. Additionally, we explore the residual difference between these channels and the total labor force change, which is due to labor force non-participation by individuals. We find that this residual is larger in the period following the Great Recession, which highlights the growing importance of non-participation as a response to labor demand shocks. Finally, we find evidence that mass layoff events cause individuals to undertake long-distance migration rather than migration to adjacent counties.
Media: Wall Street Journal; Washington Center for Equitable Growth
Briefs: VoxEU Brief; Census CES Discussion Paper 15-25
Career Technical Education and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from California Community Colleges, with Michal Kurlaender and Ann Stevens
NBER Working Paper 21137, April 2015. (Revisions Requested at Journal of Human Resources)
Abstract: This paper estimates the earnings returns to vocational, or career technical, education programs in the nation’s largest community college system. While career technical education (CTE) programs have often been mentioned as an attractive alternative to four-year colleges for some students, very little systematic evidence exists on the returns to specific vocational certificates and degrees. Using administrative data covering the entire California Community College system and linked administrative earnings records, this study estimates returns to CTE education. We use rich pre-enrollment earnings data and estimation approaches including individual fixed effects and individual trends, and find average returns to CTE certificate and degrees that range from 12 to 23 percent. The largest returns are for programs in the healthcare sector; among non-health related CTE programs estimated returns range from five to ten percent.
Media: CEA Report on Student Debt; Chicago Policy Review; US News and World Report; Five Thirty Eight; Diverse Issues in Higher Education
Briefs: UC Davis Center for Poverty Research
The Effect of Lower Transaction Costs on SSDI Application Rates and Participation, with Stephanie Rennane and Andrew Foote (under review)
We analyze how Social Security Disability Insurance (SSDI) application behavior was affected by iClaim, a 2009 innovation that streamlined the online application process and lowered costs to apply and appeal. We compare application rates before and after 2009 between counties with differential changes in application costs due to high speed internet access. While higher exposure to the online application led to a small increase in applications and more appeals, it decreased award rates. These results suggest that in counties with higher internet access, iClaim may have increased the share of marginal SSDI applicants or affect the quality of initial applications.
The Effect of Local Labor Market Downturns on Postsecondary Enrollment and Program Choice, with Andrew Foote
Though there is evidence that postsecondary enrollment is countercyclical with respect to national economic trends, much less is known at the local level. This paper examines the response of community college enrollment to local labor demand shocks. We rely on detailed data about institution-level enrollment and credential completion for most two-year colleges across the country over the past two decades. While previous work has focused on local unemployment rates to measure local economic conditions, we leverage counts of mass layoffs within a local labor market, which represent discrete and acute labor demand shocks. We find that for every 100 workers involved in a mass layoff, first-time fall enrollment in nearby community colleges increases by about 3 students in the following year. We also find that credential completion responds heterogeneously by field of study. In particular, we show that the largest responses to mass layoff events are in two-year degrees and certificates in fields with higher expected labor market returns.
Long-term Effects of Head Start: New Evidence from the PSID, with Doug Miller and Na'ama Shenhav (available on request)
Abstract: The best available evidence of the long term impact of Head Start suggests that the program has a positive impact on participants’ economic and health outcomes. However, many of these studies are limited by small sample size and are only able to examine outcomes during early adulthood. This study takes advantage of one of the largest longitudinal samples of Head Start participants, and the detailed information collected in the Panel Study of Income Dynamics, to identify the effects of Head Start on an index of economic and health outcomes up to age 40. Using a family fixed effects approach, we find that Head Start increases the likelihood of completing some college. However we find little evidence for a strong effect on overall economic or physical well-being. In our discussion, we identify and discuss new methodological limitations of the family fixed effects approach with a binary independent variable. Our findings imply that our results reflect a local average treatment effect among “switcher” families - that may not be generalizable to the population - and therefore that alternative approaches should be taken to gain additional evidence about the long term impact of Head Start.
In Progress
- How Responsive are Community Colleges to the Labor Market?
- School Infrastructure Spending and Academic Outcomes, with Ross Milton
- Community College Capacity Constraints and Malleable Factors, with Michal Kurlaender and Ann Stevens
- The Effect of Tuition Policy Changes on Academic Outcomes, with Annie Hines
- Does Specific Labor Market Information Affect Major Choice? with Matt Naven
Research Experience
Before beginning my PhD I worked at the Urban Institute's Metropolitan Housing and Communities Policy Center. You can see my research page here.